<p style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0.0001pt; text-indent: 21pt; line-height: 19.2pt; background-image: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-size: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 10.5pt;"> </span></p>
<p style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0.0001pt; text-indent: 21pt; line-height: 19.2pt; background-image: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-size: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt;">生肖是中国的传统文化，属于中国非物质文化遗产，生肖类的投资收藏品作为传承传统文化的载体，相对一般收藏品具有独特的产品特色。每年的年末和年初都是生肖题材藏品倍受关注的重点期，随着<span lang="EN-US">2016</span>年贺岁季的到来，生肖类藏品也逐渐走俏收藏市场，其中，中国人民银行于<span lang="EN-US">11</span>月发行的<span lang="EN-US">“2017</span>中国丁酉（鸡）年金银纪念币<span lang="EN-US">”</span>无疑是聚焦亮点。随着该套币的发行，钱币市场再度进入<span lang="EN-US">“</span>生肖时间<span lang="EN-US">”</span>。<span lang="EN-US"><op></op></span></span></p>
<p style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0.0001pt; line-height: 19.2pt; background-image: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-size: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 10.5pt;"> </span></p>
<p style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0.0001pt; line-height: 19.2pt; background-image: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-size: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial;"><strong><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; font-family: 宋体;">翘盼<span lang="EN-US">“</span>最受青睐<span lang="EN-US">”</span>币种面市</span></strong><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 10.5pt;"><op></op></span></p>
<p style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0.0001pt; line-height: 19.2pt; background-image: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-size: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 10.5pt;"> </span></p>
<p style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0.0001pt; text-indent: 21pt; line-height: 19.2pt; background-image: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-size: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt;">在中国人民银行每年公布的贵金属纪念币发行计划中，第二年的生肖币大都是收官项目，也是各地经销商和消费者最重点关注的币种之一，经销商想尽办法提高自己的<span lang="EN-US">“</span>分配量<span lang="EN-US">”</span>，消费者翘首一年，大都也期盼此币面市。市场上，人们用<span lang="EN-US">“</span>最受青睐的金银币<span lang="EN-US">”</span>来形容生肖币。生肖币之所以广受欢迎，原因很多，诸如生肖文化的传承、题材亲民吸引力大、每年发行形成系列等等。但笔者认为，最重要的原因之一，是其长久的积累形成了<span lang="EN-US">“</span>收藏惯性<span lang="EN-US">”</span>，购买生肖币已成为投资收藏群体的<span lang="EN-US">“</span>习惯<span lang="EN-US">”</span>，就像过年吃饺子、贴对联一样。笔者认为，在中国钱币市场上，能达到如此地位的币种只有两个：一个生肖币，另外一个则是熊猫币。<span lang="EN-US"><op></op></span></span></p>
<p style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0.0001pt; line-height: 19.2pt; background-image: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-size: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 10.5pt;"> </span></p>
<p align="center" style="text-align: center;"><img title="生肖纪念币一套" alt="图片点击可在新窗口打开查看" src="http://www.zgqw.com/n_upload/handle/20161220/c222c445ee76b7757a61ccf335115de3-1482217134.jpg" tangram_guid="TANGRAM_22" data-bd-imgshare-binded="1" style="width: 500px; cursor: pointer;"/></p>
<p style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0.0001pt; text-indent: 21pt; line-height: 19.2pt; background-image: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-size: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt;">中国人民银行发行公告显示，<span lang="EN-US">“2017</span>中国丁酉（鸡）年金银<span lang="EN-US"><a href="http://www.zgqw.com/h-10"><span lang="EN-US"><span lang="EN-US">纪念币</span></span></a>”</span>于<span lang="EN-US">11</span>月<span lang="EN-US">16</span>日正式发行，该套纪念币包括金币<span lang="EN-US">10</span>枚、银币<span lang="EN-US">7</span>枚。随着该<span lang="EN-US">2016</span>年收官项目的发行，相信各地经销商的预约热线也忙了起来，加之岁末收藏、送礼等多方需求，各地的币市也随之开始升温。但笔者想提醒大家，市场升温的背后谨防<span lang="EN-US">“</span>李鬼<span lang="EN-US">”</span>增多。<span lang="EN-US"><op></op></span></span></p>
<p style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0.0001pt; line-height: 19.2pt; background-image: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-size: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 10.5pt;"> </span></p>
<p style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0.0001pt; line-height: 19.2pt; background-image: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-size: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial;"><strong><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; font-family: 宋体;">币市复苏不再遥远，减量增质或成趋势</span></strong><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 10.5pt;"><op></op></span></p>
<p style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0.0001pt; line-height: 19.2pt; background-image: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-size: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 10.5pt;"> </span></p>
<p style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0.0001pt; text-indent: 21pt; line-height: 19.2pt; background-image: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-size: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt;">在节庆需求的多因素拉动下，每年的生肖币都会不同程度的拉动岁末币市的升温，但币市近几年一直处于调整期，岁末年初过去之后，市场会再次趋于平淡。笔者认为，本次由生肖币带动的岁末市场升温或许能成为币市复苏的一个开端。笔者之所以这样认为，源自整个艺术品交易行情的逐渐复苏。<span lang="EN-US"><op></op></span></span></p>
<p style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0.0001pt; line-height: 19.2pt; background-image: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-size: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 10.5pt;"> </span></p>
<p style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0.0001pt; text-indent: 21pt; line-height: 19.2pt; background-image: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-size: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 10.5pt;">2016</span><span style="font-size: 10.5pt;">年艺术品秋拍已过大半，各大艺术品拍卖公司的拍卖结果甚是喜人。如作为书画拍卖市场的<span lang="EN-US">“</span>风向标<span lang="EN-US">”</span>，今年嘉德秋拍<span lang="EN-US">“</span>大观<span lang="EN-US">”</span>书画夜场共拍到<span lang="EN-US">9.29</span>亿元，成交率<span lang="EN-US">72%</span>，其中张大千的《巨然晴峰图》，以<span lang="EN-US">1.035</span>亿元成交，再次让市场<span lang="EN-US">“</span>兴奋<span lang="EN-US">”</span>起来，其他专场的人气和成交率也较为突出。再回想从今年年初开始，国内外各大拍行纷纷创出拍卖记录，保利香港<span lang="EN-US">4</span>月的春拍上，吴冠中的《周庄》以<span lang="EN-US">2.36</span>亿港币刷新纪录；<span lang="EN-US">5</span>月佳士得<span lang="EN-US">“</span>战后及当代艺术<span lang="EN-US">”</span>夜场拍卖中，<span lang="EN-US">6</span>位战后艺术家都打破了个人原有的拍卖纪录<span lang="EN-US">……</span>全球艺术品市场似乎正在回暖。有收藏者在嘉德<span lang="EN-US">“</span>大观<span lang="EN-US">”</span>夜场拍后感叹，市场繁荣时的那股<span lang="EN-US">“</span>齐白石热<span lang="EN-US">”</span>又回来了吧？热门大师行情又卷土重来了吗？继而引发了一系列关于市场回暖机遇、新一波市场周期到来等议论。<span lang="EN-US"><op></op></span></span></p>
<p style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0.0001pt; line-height: 19.2pt; background-image: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-size: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 10.5pt;"> </span></p>
<p style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0.0001pt; text-indent: 21pt; line-height: 19.2pt; background-image: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-size: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt;">这一波拍卖热度能否启动整个大行情或是昙花一现还有待观察，但笔者认为，贵金属纪念币作为艺术品市场的一个分支，尤其随着近年来钱币文化的普及，当代钱币从小众收藏逐渐发展为重要类别，整体艺术品交易行情的升温，可以作为币市发展预判因素之一。<span lang="EN-US"><op></op></span></span></p>
<p style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0.0001pt; line-height: 19.2pt; background-image: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-size: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 10.5pt;"> </span></p>
<p style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0.0001pt; text-indent: 21pt; line-height: 19.2pt; background-image: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-size: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt;">笔者另外发现，在本轮市场复苏过程中，收藏者变得更加<span lang="EN-US">“</span>挑剔<span lang="EN-US">”</span>。<span lang="EN-US">2016</span>秋拍报告还没有出炉，根据《<span lang="EN-US">2016</span>年艺术品春拍报告》显示，上半年艺术品上拍量和成交量都在缩减，然而成交率却同比上涨<span lang="EN-US">10%</span>，这充分说明市场正在<span lang="EN-US">“</span>减量增质<span lang="EN-US">”</span>。币市也不例外，尤其近两年，盲目追风者离开市场，投资收藏者日趋理性，只有熊猫币、生肖币等传统优质项目，及抗战胜利<span lang="EN-US">70</span>周年等重磅项目，在起浮中经受住了市场的考验。因此，笔者认为，减量增质将成为币市的趋势之一。<span lang="EN-US"><op></op></span></span></p>
<p style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0.0001pt; line-height: 19.2pt; background-image: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-size: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 10.5pt;"> </span></p>
<p style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0.0001pt; text-indent: 21pt; line-height: 19.2pt; background-image: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-size: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt;">在这样的趋势下，选择什么样的币种就显得尤其重要。那么，如何选择有投资、收藏价值的金银币呢<span lang="EN-US">? </span>笔者认为中国收藏家协会钱币收藏委员会委员狄文琦的观点值得借鉴：系列的龙头币种，工艺上有特色的币种，超跌、被严重低估的币种，题材和设计都不错、但价格还没有大涨过的币种，尽量集齐一个系列中某个规格的金币或银币，以及老精稀中的精品币种，价格不高且成交比较活跃的币种，此外还应适当关注相对冷门的币种。<span lang="EN-US"><op></op></span></span></p>
<p style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0.0001pt; line-height: 19.2pt; background-image: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-size: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 10.5pt;"> </span></p>
<p style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0.0001pt; line-height: 19.2pt; background-image: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-size: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt;">至于币市何时能够真正复苏，无人能说出一二，但笔者认为，币市复苏已不再遥远！<span lang="EN-US"><op></op></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 宋体;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: 宋体;">中国钱网<span lang="EN-US"><op></op></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: 宋体;"><br/></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: 宋体;"><br/></span></p>
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