蒙奇D路飞
发表于 2015-2-25 21:11:00
<font size="5">理由如下：</font><span lang="EN-US" style="LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-SIZE: 14pt;"><font face="Times New Roman">1</font></span><span style="LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 14pt; mso-ascii-font-family: "mso-hansi-font-family:";">、编年型张平均年溢价倍率仅</span><span lang="EN-US" style="LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-SIZE: 14pt;"><font face="Times New Roman">1.06</font></span><span style="LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 14pt; mso-ascii-font-family: "mso-hansi-font-family:";">左右（相当于年利</span><span lang="EN-US" style="LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-SIZE: 14pt;"><font face="Times New Roman">6%</font></span><span style="LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 14pt; mso-ascii-font-family: "mso-hansi-font-family:";">），比银行年利率稍高点，低于这些年的平均年通货膨胀率；君子兰、聊斋一</span><span lang="EN-US" style="LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-SIZE: 14pt;"><font face="Times New Roman">M</font></span><span style="LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 14pt; mso-ascii-font-family: "mso-hansi-font-family:";">的年溢价倍率也不到</span><span lang="EN-US" style="LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-SIZE: 14pt;"><font face="Times New Roman">1.05</font></span><span style="LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 14pt; mso-ascii-font-family: "mso-hansi-font-family:";">，说明编年型张多数品种都还有较大上升空间。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-SIZE: 14pt;"><font face="Times New Roman">2</font></span><span style="LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 14pt; mso-ascii-font-family: "mso-hansi-font-family:";">、</span><span lang="EN-US" style="LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-SIZE: 14pt;"><font face="Times New Roman">JT</font></span><span style="LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 14pt; mso-ascii-font-family: "mso-hansi-font-family:";">票品平均年溢价倍率在</span><span lang="EN-US" style="LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-SIZE: 14pt;"><font face="Times New Roman">1.15</font></span><span style="LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 14pt; mso-ascii-font-family: "mso-hansi-font-family:";">左右，年溢价倍率提升</span><span lang="EN-US" style="LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-SIZE: 14pt;"><font face="Times New Roman">5</font></span><span style="LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 14pt; mso-ascii-font-family: "mso-hansi-font-family:";">个点达到</span><span lang="EN-US" style="LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-SIZE: 14pt;"><font face="Times New Roman">1.20</font></span><span style="LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 14pt; mso-ascii-font-family: "mso-hansi-font-family:";">左右，并无明显估值偏高情况，预测的情况是很多品种可以</span><span lang="EN-US" style="LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-SIZE: 14pt;"><font face="Times New Roman">3</font></span><span style="LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 14pt; mso-ascii-font-family: "mso-hansi-font-family:";">倍以上涨幅。以</span><span lang="EN-US" style="LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-SIZE: 14pt;"><font face="Times New Roman">T131</font></span><span style="LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 14pt; mso-ascii-font-family: "mso-hansi-font-family:";">三国一票为例，按中国集邮信息网最新报价</span><span lang="EN-US" style="LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-SIZE: 14pt;"><font face="Times New Roman">20</font></span><span style="LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 14pt; mso-ascii-font-family: "mso-hansi-font-family:";">元一套，估算出年溢价倍率有</span><span lang="EN-US" style="LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-SIZE: 14pt;"><font face="Times New Roman">1.12</font></span><span style="LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 14pt; mso-ascii-font-family: "mso-hansi-font-family:";">，如果按年溢价倍率</span><span lang="EN-US" style="LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-SIZE: 14pt;"><font face="Times New Roman">1.18</font></span><span style="LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 14pt; mso-ascii-font-family: "mso-hansi-font-family:";">估算，则三国一估值为</span><span lang="EN-US" style="LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-SIZE: 14pt;"><font face="Times New Roman">84</font></span><span style="LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 14pt; mso-ascii-font-family: "mso-hansi-font-family:";">元，可涨三倍以上。所以，个人得出的结论是，</span><span lang="EN-US" style="LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-SIZE: 14pt;"><font face="Times New Roman">14</font></span><span style="LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 14pt; mso-ascii-font-family: "mso-hansi-font-family:";">年只是邮市多年低迷后的报复性价值修复行情，这种报复性价值修复，还将在更长时间和更多的品种上面体现。邮市整体价值低估甚至是严重低估，这仍是邮市发展的重要内因。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-SIZE: 14pt;">
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